Given the delicate state of the UK economy, along with a somewhat banal game of party political electoral tennis, you could be forgiven for thinking that the upcoming election, and potential changing of the guard, might just lead to more of the same unpredictable drudgery we have experienced over the last however many years now [I choose to forget]. Anyone who knows me, knows that I am an insufferable optimist, but this economic instability even has me questioning “What might the upcoming election really mean for our construction industry and the economy as a whole - Is it good!?; or might we still end up being shackled with the mistakes, trends, unfortunate consequences of recent years?” One thing I think everyone would agree on is that something needs to change!
Whether you are red, blue, green, yellow, orange, or some other political colour, surely the only future that we all hope for is one of consistent growth, as consistent growth generates cash (via taxes) and stability (via more predictable outcomes). Cash means we have the liquidity to fix and invest in things. Fix the NHS, fix the potholes, fix the railways, invest in affordable housing, invest in education; the list goes on. Stability is key for providing the confidence the market needs to make future plans, whether that be an investment decision about a new project or simply being able to more accurately predict the future cost of wages and materials, thus making tender prices more stable and potential tenderers more assured in their approach.
The good news is that the promise of growth is something all the major parties seem to have in common. How they plan on attaining that growth is however a whole other topic (along with whether you believe them or not), and perhaps the underlying key to winning an election. As such, practical spending plans will hopefully underpin the credible winner’s mandate. Now we all know politics is rarely as simple as that, especially when you consider legacy mistakes/successes, economic productivity, and not to mention personalities. You only need to analyse the Clinton Vs Trump (US Election 2016) campaigns to get a small taste of the complexity behind the psychology of it all. But regardless of all the background noise, consistent growth is still at the core of this country’s future success.
Luckily for us, as the construction sector makes up approximately 6% of the UK’s total economic output, it cements itself as a prominent cornerstone of UK PLC. It is perhaps then unsurprising that the topic takes a seat close to the front of the queue when it comes to receiving future promises, which can only bode well for the industry as a whole. But what do those promises (mandates) look like for the 2024 election?
2024 Manifesto Overview
Building
When it comes to building, addressing the housing shortfall features front and centre with all the main parties. Particularly those locations associated with brownfield sites. In conjunction with addressing the housing shortfall each of the main parties also acknowledge the need for an urgent reform of the planning system.
Worthy of note is how quiet all the manifestos are on the topic of investment in bricks and mortar for schools, hospitals, prisons, and police stations etc. This may be because the last 20 years has already seen focused investment in these areas, but it also likely linked to the more pressing need to reform these public services from a more administrative/operational perspective. E.g. Prioritising the workforce, reducing NHS waiting lists and so on.
So, if your business has close links to the housing sector of the building market you can rest assured that this area, regardless of who wins the election, is going to see increased attention during the next parliamentary period.
Key messages – more affordable housing on brownfield sites with a reformed planning system.
Infrastructure
When looking at the main parties’ plans for infrastructure it is immediately apparent that the view is more wide ranging, especially when compared to building. In building the focus is clearly on housing, but when it comes to infrastructure several different areas are mentioned. Perhaps unsurprisingly, sustainability and the environment feature heavily in the plans which are then linked to areas such as carbon capture, renewable energy, nuclear power and defence. The latter likely rising to prominence as a result of the current state of global affairs.
The usual suspects of road and rail do get mentions; however, they seem to feature far less prominently than they might have done in the past. They aren’t totally absent from the plans, however what is notable is the lack of any specific detail concerning either area. Perhaps only with the exception of potholes!
Key messages – big focus on sustainable infrastructure with road and rail seemingly taking a back seat. Planning system reform also features repeatedly.
Summary
It is quite evident from reading the manifestos that construction remains an important piece of the UK economic plan, and it is comforting to know that this is something which is acknowledged and recognised by all of the main parties in their individual plans. And whilst a plan is just that, a plan, we can rest assured that they will be the barometer for success/failure for whoever ends up in power after 4th July 2024.
To me these manifestos represent a pivot point or changing of course. Where in the past roads, rail and hospitals have taken centre stage, we are now setting a course towards a sustainable future involving a heavy focus on renewables, regeneration of brownfield sites and housing. And whilst to many of us this won’t be any great surprise, we are now seeing this natural shift turn into more of a planned approach which is a clear sign of things to come.
As an industry we are good at adapting to changes in the marketplace, so I am confident that this new path is a challenge we will rise to. So, when the new parliamentary term starts, let’s just hope we have a government that can rise to the challenge too.
By Ben O'Connell
Commercial Director
VINOVIUS
Sources
Conservative and Unionist Party Manifesto 2024 (CLEAR PLAN, BOLD ACTION, SECURE FUTURE)
Labour Party Manifesto 2024 (Our plan to change Britain)
Reform UK Contract 2024 (Our Contract with You)
Liberal Democrats Manifesto 2024 (For a Fair Deal)
